Novo Nordisk announced the positive weight loss research data of Semaglutide mixture products. However, due to the lack of previous market expectations, the stock price of US stocks fell sharply before the market, while its competitor Lilly Company of the United States rose significantly before the market.
On December 20th, Novo Nordisk announced the main results of a phase III clinical trial called REDEFINE 1. When evaluating the therapeutic effect of everyone's insistence on treatment, the patients treated with CagriSema lost 22.7% of their weight after 68 weeks, the patients treated with cagrilintide 2.4 mg lost 11.8%, the patients treated with Semaglutide 2.4 mg lost 16.1%, and the patients treated with placebo alone lost 2.3%.
When evaluated based on the treatment policy, the patients treated with CagriSema lost 20.4%, those treated with cagrilintide 2.4 mg lost 11.5%, those treated with Semaglutide 2.4mg lost 14.9%, and those treated with placebo lost 3%.
CagriSema is a mixture product of Semaglutide and a new amylin analogue cagrilintide. It can be regarded as an upgraded version of Semaglutide, which is used subcutaneously once a week and has potential in diabetes and weight loss. Novo Nordisk's latest CagriSema Phase III study included 3417 obese or overweight patients with one or more complications, with an average baseline weight of 106.9 kg. From the results, CagriSema's weight loss effect is indeed better than Semaglutide's, but because it is less than the market expectation of 25%, Novo Nordisk's US stocks fell more than 28% before the market.
In the first three quarters of this year, the three products of Novo Nordisk Semaglutide together contributed a total of 141.213 billion Danish kroner, or about 20.292 billion US dollars, of which the income of the reduced version of Wegovy (Semaglutide preparation) was 38.34 billion Danish kroner, or about 5.532 billion US dollars, up 77% year-on-year, which was far ahead in the global GLP-1 track, especially in the field of weight loss.
However, in the face of a group of competitors represented by Lilly, Novo Nordisk has not slackened. On the one hand, it has continuously expanded the scope of Semaglutide's indications, and on the other hand, it has continuously laid out new pipelines, among which CagriSema is one.
In August, 2022, Novo Nordisk disclosed the Phase II study of CagriSema. The results showed that after 32 weeks of treatment, the patients in the CagriSema treatment group achieved a greater blood sugar decline than those in the Semaglutide treatment group or the cagrilintide treatment group. What makes Novo Nordisk and the industry even more excited is that compared with the 5.1% weight loss of patients with Semaglutide alone and the 8.1% weight loss of patients with cagrilintide alone, the patients in CagriSema treatment group also achieved a higher value of 15.6% weight loss.
In contrast to the decline in Novo Nordisk's share price, under the influence of this news, Lilly's US stocks rose by more than 12% before the market. Lilly's GLP-1/GIP dual agonist Telpotide is another world-renowned weight-loss drug. The reduced version of Telpotide Zepound earned $3.018 billion in the first three quarters.
On December 4th, local time, Lilly announced that at the 72nd week, in an experiment aimed at obese or overweight adults, Zepbound beat the reduced version of Wegovy at the main end point and all five key secondary end points.
Regarding the weight-loss effect of CagriSema, Novo Nordisk executives commented that the weight-loss effect of CagriSema is better than that of Semaglutide and cagrilintide. "This makes us feel encouraged" and plans to further explore the additional weight-loss potential of CagriSema.
Novo Nordisk also revealed that the results of REDEFINE 2, the second key phase 3 trial, are expected to be announced in the first half of 2025, which is aimed at obese or overweight adult patients with type 2 diabetes.
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