This year has been a troubled year!!!
Global exchange rate volatility:
The dollar approaches 6.2 and the euro falls below 7!
After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, the European market was the first to be affected by the cross-border circle.
First, during the war, not only the cross-border trade between Russia and Ukraine was affected, but also the cross-border trade in the whole of Europe decreased significantly. According to the feedback from the seller of the European station, Europe has not been able to issue a bill recently. Many of the goods were delivered at a high freight rate years ago, which is uncomfortable.
Secondly, the global exchange rate has also shown a volatile trend recently. In particular, the euro exchange rate continued to fall and repeatedly hit new lows, allowing sellers in the European market to witness history! In an international conflict, the seller's wallet is dripping blood. If the war does not subside quickly, the euro is bound to continue to fluctuate. With the continuous rise of the RMB exchange rate, the money bag of cross-border sellers will continue to shrink.
It is reported that recently, the daily maximum of onshore and offshore RMB spot exchange rate against the US dollar hit 6.3095 and 6.3016 respectively, approaching the era of 6.2, and also setting a new high since April 2018, making cross-border practitioners unbearable. The most striking thing is that a year ago, the exchange rate of the euro was still 7.9, but today, the exchange rate of the euro has fallen below 7 and has come to the era of 6! The seller said: I have to look at the euro exchange rate
Due to the outbreak of war and the continuous deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, global risk aversion was promoted, and the RMB remained strong due to the prominent characteristics of risk aversion. Therefore, small and medium-sized sellers should pay special attention to the issue of exchange rate hedging, so as to avoid heavy losses caused by the international conflict.
Russia Europe cross-border airspace!
European Air Force soared three times!
Just at the beginning of last week, according to many sellers and freight forwarders, the unit price of European air transportation once fell below 19, which is almost comparable to the price of sea transportation. Compared with the sky-high price in the same period last year, it can be said to be a big dive, which surprised many sellers. However, the international situation is treacherous. Overnight, the price of the air force has shown earth-shaking changes.
Russia and Ukraine went to war, European and American countries successively announced the closure of their airspace to Russia, and Russia also took countermeasures to prohibit national aircraft that had previously closed their airspace to Russia from entering Russian airspace. It is reported that Russian airspace is an important channel for Arctic routes between Europe and Asia, or between North American stations and Asia. Many international airlines usually pass through Russian airspace when flying some Eurasian routes. On the one hand, it means that other cargo routes will be more crowded. In this regard, some sellers are deeply worried that after Russia and Europe cross-border airspace, the air force will usher in a new round of rising. Sure enough, according to the feedback of many sellers, at present, European air transport has soared from nearly 20 / kg before the outbreak of the war to more than 50. More sellers said that it is still about 49 / kg in the morning and has risen to more than 60 in the afternoon. Not only that, but now the price of the American air force has also increased. Insiders said, some time ago, the American air force has fallen to less than 20, but now the price of transfer flight has basically risen to about 30, and the price of direct flight can be as high as 40.
The war among the three countries on the foreign trade platform is in full swing, and it is unknown who will win or lose
In February this year, the fourth-quarter financial report of 2021 released by Facebook's parent company meta showed that Facebook's daily life fell for the first time in history, reducing 1 million users. Threats from video applications such as TikTok are emerging.
In the field of cross-border e-commerce, the Amazon Title Wave in the first half of 2021 prompted many cross-border businesses to join the competition of independent stations and began to buy traffic from Facebook. In the same year, Apple added app tracking transparency (ATT) on iPhone and iPad, which requires apps to seek users' permission to track their activities on other apps and websites. This measure has three major impacts on independent station businesses: the limitation of personalized advertising, the limitation of cross-media effect attribution, and the difficulty of advertising optimization.
At present, Facebook is in the throes of adjusting its advertising layout, and these cross-border businesses are also facing the dilemma of soaring advertising costs and unknown transformation. Businesses choose to reduce the overall spending on Facebook advertising and turn to new channels (mainly Google and TikTok) and new marketing strategies. Only some businesses continue to invest in order to reshape their brand.
Google has always been one of the main advertising platforms for cross-border e-commerce independent stations. However, due to the strict account audit rules and the long advertising cycle, there are relatively fewer businesses putting Google than Facebook. After the introduction of Apple's new regulations, many businesses rekindled their expectations for Google and tried to launch Google.
Tiktok also made a sudden rise overseas last year with short video advertising. Many contents of Facebook reels (rolling short videos) are imported from TikTok, and the reserve and algorithm of video advertising are not as perfect as TikTok. However, TikTok users are young, their purchasing power is not strong, and the advertising conversion rate is 1% or less. At present, there are still a few profitable businesses.
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