The Gaza Strip, this long and narrow land bordering the Mediterranean Sea, has once again become the focus of the world's attention. After the smoke of war and the grief, people's longing for a ceasefire has become increasingly urgent. However, whether a lasting ceasefire can be achieved in Gaza is not only a test of the wisdom of all parties to the conflict, but also concerns the nerves of the international community.
The possibility of a ceasefire always exists, but the road is full of thorns. In the short term, under the mediation of the international community, the conflicting parties may reach a temporary ceasefire agreement for humanitarian considerations or strategic adjustments. Such a ceasefire can offer a respite to civilians ravaged by war, allow humanitarian aid to enter and save countless lives. Historically, the Gaza Strip has witnessed many similar temporary ceasefires, which proves that even in the most brutal conflicts, the glimmer of peace has never completely died out.
I. the negotiation process is difficult and tortuous. Can multi-party mediation achieve results?
1.The new round of Gaza ceasefire talks between the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel in Sharm el-Sheikh entered the third day on the 8th. The negotiations were conducted indirectly, with Egypt, Qatar and the United States mediating. On the same day, Egyptian President Seyce said that the negotiations had made "positive progress" and called on all parties to seize the opportunity to end the conflict in Gaza.
2.According to a report by Cairo News TV on the 8th, those who joined the talks on the same day included Rachad, director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Agency, Mohammed, Qatar Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Karin, director of the Turkish National Intelligence Agency, Witkov, the US Special Envoy for the Middle East, and kushner, the son-in-law of US President Trump. After the bilateral and multilateral talks, an enlarged meeting was held on the 8th. However, Hamas did not participate in the enlarged meeting.
3.On the same day, the media adviser of Tahar Nunu, a senior member of Hamas, said that Hamas and Israel exchanged lists of people to be released, and all parties involved in the new round of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza were "full of optimism". The consultant pointed out that the Hamas delegation showed enthusiasm and sense of responsibility for making necessary progress in the negotiations and finally reaching an agreement, and the mediator was trying to remove obstacles for reaching a ceasefire agreement, which all parties were "full of optimism". He also said that the key points of the negotiations include ending the war, withdrawing Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and the implementation mechanism of exchanging people to be released. The two sides exchanged the list of persons to be released according to the agreed standards and numbers. With the participation of relevant parties and mediators, indirect negotiations are still going on.
4.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on the 8th that since the start of the new round of ceasefire talks in Gaza, Hamas has shown a more constructive stance than Israel, but Israel has not shown similar constructive behavior. Erdogan said that Turkey will be firmly committed to solving the Palestinian issue on the basis of the "two-state solution". "Our first task is to achieve an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible. Humanitarian assistance must arrive in Gaza without delay and without interruption. " A Palestinian source said that representatives of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jehad) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) planned to arrive in Egypt on the evening of the 8th. They will participate in the negotiations with the delegation of Hamas, which may be more helpful to solve the problem of Israeli detainees in Gaza.
II.Can the ceasefire agreement be extended and can humanitarian aid resume?
The last cease-fire agreement was reached in May, also under the intensive mediation of Egypt and Qatar. According to the agreement, the two sides will immediately stop all military operations, the Israeli army will withdraw some of its troops in the first phase, and 400 humanitarian aid trucks will be allowed to enter Gaza every day. In the first hour after the ceasefire came into effect, there was a long-lost calm on the streets of Gaza. A large number of people walked out of the shelter and began to search for living materials. The rescue convoy of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Near East (UNRWA) is ready to deliver food and medicine to the most severely damaged northern region. Although the ceasefire agreement has created a valuable window for alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, all parties are still cautious about long-term peace. Facts have proved that before the cease-fire agreement ended, Israel began a new round of bombing of Gaza. And last month, Israel bombed Qatar, the mediating country, so we are more worried about the outcome of this peace.
III. the reconstruction of Gaza is a long and arduous task, and the wounds are hard to heal easily
According to statistics from the Gaza Health department, as of the time the last ceasefire agreement was reached, the ongoing conflict has caused over 34,000 deaths and more than 70,000 injuries, nearly 70% of whom are women and children. About 60% of the houses in the Gaza Strip were damaged or destroyed, and key infrastructure including hospitals, schools and water supply systems suffered severe damage.
In the ruins in the west of Gaza City, 50-year-old Mohammed ABU is trying to rescue usable items from the debris of his own house. We lost our home, but at least we saved our lives. Now I only hope that peace can last. His words expressed the feelings of many people in Gaza. The United Nations Development Programme has initially assessed that the reconstruction work will require at least 18 billion US dollars and take more than five years.
IIII. the international community has responded positively and the subsequent negotiations have attracted much attention
The US President welcomed the ceasefire agreement and promised to provide 320 million US dollars in emergency aid to Gaza. The European Union announced that it will hold an international donation conference for the reconstruction of Gaza next week. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that China has always advocated resolving disputes through dialogue and will dispatch medical teams and provide humanitarian supplies to Gaza.
However, analysts point out that this ceasefire still appears fragile. The office of the Israeli Prime Minister emphasized that if the ceasefire agreement is violated, the Israeli military "will take the necessary actions immediately". Although the various Palestinian factions agreed to a ceasefire, they still retained the expression of "the right to resist" in the joint statement.
V. The prospects for peace are cautiously optimistic, but fundamental issues remain to be resolved
A senior expert on the Israel-Palestine issue pointed out: "The contradictions between the two sides in this ceasefire negotiation are huge, and Israel still holds an advantageous attacking position in the Middle East. Therefore, the negotiations cannot touch upon the core issues." Not to mention better progress on key issues such as the status of Jerusalem, Jewish settlements, and border demarcation.
At present, new negotiations are scheduled to be held in Cairo in two weeks and will involve a broader political solution. The international community generally expects that this ceasefire can serve as an opportunity to restart the Middle East peace process. However, historical experience shows that the path to peace in Gaza is still full of uncertainties. As the UN special envoy said, "We have taken an important step, but there is still a long way ahead."
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