(Islamabad) Recently, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly confirmed for the first time that it will provide Saudi Arabia with a "nuclear umbrella", which immediately triggered deep concern of the international community about the risk of nuclear proliferation. According to Pakistan's official statement, this move is aimed at "responding to regional security challenges", but analysts pointed out that it marks the first expansion of the nuclear umbrella policy from traditional nuclear countries to nuclear-armed developing countries, which may change the strategic balance in the Middle East.
1:Historical origin and strategic consideration
The military cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has a long history. In 2015, the then Pakistani Defense Minister publicly admitted that the troops stationed in Saudi Arabia included nuclear weapons experts; When the Saudi Crown Prince visited Pakistan in 2018, the two sides signed 14 agreements including nuclear energy cooperation. The formal confirmation of the nuclear umbrella is regarded as an upgrade of strategic cooperation between the two countries. Malik Ibrahim, director of the Islamabad Institute of Strategic Studies, pointed out: "This is not only the return of Pakistan's long-term economic support to Saudi Arabia, but also a measure to deal with the changes in the regional nuclear situation, especially the continuous improvement of Iran's nuclear capabilities."
2:The nuclear non-proliferation system faces challenges.
Although the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) does not explicitly prohibit the nuclear umbrella arrangement, Pakistan, as a non-N state party, provides such guarantee to another non-nuclear-weapon state, breaking through the convention that the traditional nuclear umbrella is limited to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. Zhang Wei, a researcher at the Vienna Nuclear Security Center, said: "This cross-regional nuclear deterrent cooperation may trigger a chain reaction. It is not excluded that Turkey, Egypt and other countries will also seek similar arrangements, leading to multipolarization of the nuclear deterrent system. "
3:Great Power Reaction and Regional Influence
A the USA State Council spokesman said that "developments are being closely watched" and stressed that "all countries should abide by nuclear non-proliferation standards". The Russian Foreign Ministry called for "restraint and avoiding undermining regional strategic stability". It is worth noting that Israel has not issued an official statement, but according to the Jerusalem Post, the IDF has upgraded its combat readiness. The Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned this move as "dangerous nuclear adventurism" and warned that "corresponding countermeasures" would be taken.
4:Double dilemma of law and morality
In 2016, the former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, pointed out: "There is a regulatory blind spot in the third-party nuclear safeguards arrangement." At present, the international community lacks a monitoring mechanism for such bilateral nuclear protection agreements. William Arkin, director of the nuclear policy program at the Kennedy School of Harvard University, said: "This is actually an' indirect nuclear proliferation'. Although it does not involve the physical transfer of nuclear weapons, it expands the coverage of nuclear deterrence through security commitments."
5:Future Trend and Enlightenment of Global Security
Experts predict that there may be three scenarios: the best situation is that the parties concerned establish a new nuclear code of conduct through dialogue; The middle case is the formation of a "nuclear umbrella competition" in the Middle East; The worst-case scenario is the outbreak of a nuclear proxy conflict. At present, relying on the military strength of the United States, Israel constantly provokes the threat of war in the Middle East, and even Qatar, the closest American ally, has been attacked, making everyone in the Middle East feel insecure, especially after the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, many countries have begun to explore new nuclear protection. The future situation in the Middle East is unpredictable.Even some countries may achieve illegal purposes by designing controllable nuclear pollution.
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