UN Food And Agriculture Organization: Global Food Prices Rose For The Third Consecutive Month

On May 8, 2026, local time, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) officially released its April Global Food Price Monitoring Report in Rome. Key data showed that the global food price index rose for the third consecutive month, reaching a near three-year high. The FAO Global Food Price Index averaged 130.7 points in April 2026, a 1.6% increase compared to the revised March figure and a 2.0% increase year-on-year. Prices of many major food commodities rose simultaneously. This round of sustained price increases is primarily driven by a combination of factors, including the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Near East, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, high and volatile international energy prices, soaring agricultural input costs, and abnormal weather in major global producing regions. Grains and edible vegetable oils led the global food market rally, while meat and rice prices also rose. A slight decline in sugar and dairy prices was insufficient to offset the overall upward pressure. The FAO's chief economist has publicly warned that the fragility of the global food supply chain continues to worsen. If geopolitical instability, energy crises, and agricultural input shortages cannot be alleviated quickly, the upward cycle of global food prices will be further prolonged. The risks of food inflation, food insecurity, and humanitarian hunger in low-income food-deficient countries will increase significantly. The global food security landscape faces severe and long-term challenges. Countries urgently need to coordinate and take multiple measures to stabilize food production, facilitate cross-border trade, manage market risks, and solidify the bottom line of global food security.

Global food prices hit a three-year high as prices rise across multiple categories.

This month's price report released by the FAO comprehensively covers five core food categories: cereals, edible vegetable oils, meat, dairy products, and sugar. It provides a complete picture of monthly price changes for global food commodities. While the various sub-indices show significant divergence in price movements, the overall market continues its upward trend, marking three consecutive months of increases, with overall prices reaching their highest level since February 2023. As a core indicator of global food prices, the FAO Food Price Index comprehensively calculates the FOB prices of major traded food commodities worldwide, accurately reflecting changes in international food market supply and demand, costs, trade, and risks. Its three consecutive months of month-on-month increases signify that global food inflation has entered a sustained upward trend, no longer a short-term fluctuation.

 

In April, the global cereal price index rose 0.8% month-on-month and slightly 0.4% year-on-year. Except for sorghum and barley, which remained stable, wheat, corn, and global rice prices all rose. Global wheat prices rose 0.8% month-on-month. Continued drought in core North American wheat-producing regions and lower-than-average rainfall forecasts for Australia this year have combined to create unfavorable weather conditions in these two major global wheat-producing countries, leading the market to lower its 2026 global wheat planting area forecast ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have increased fertilizer procurement and transportation costs, prompting global farmers to adjust their planting structures, shifting towards cash crops with lower fertilizer consumption, further reducing wheat planting areas. This long-term expectation of tighter supply continues to support stronger wheat prices. The FAO has also lowered its 2026 global wheat production forecast, projecting a 2% decrease compared to 2025. The global grain supply and demand balance is gradually tightening, further strengthening price support. Global rice prices rose 1.9% month-on-month. The arrival of the rainy season in major Southeast Asian producing regions has hampered field production, coupled with soaring cross-border shipping costs, leading to a continued increase in Asia-Pacific rice trade costs and a synchronized rise in regional rice prices with the global market. Corn prices rose moderately in line with energy and feed demand. South American planting progress fell short of expectations, and North American inventory depletion accelerated. These multiple factors combined to drive a steady overall increase in grain prices.

Edible vegetable oils became the absolute main driver of this round of grain price increases. The vegetable oil price index rose sharply by 5.9% month-on-month in April, reaching its highest point since July 2022. Palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil all saw significant price surges. International crude oil prices remained high for an extended period, and global biofuel blending policies continued to be implemented, leading to the conversion of large quantities of oilseed crops into bioenergy. This significantly squeezed the supply of edible vegetable oils. Rigid demand for edible oils and a continued contraction in supply drove the price surge. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East disrupted oilseed trade routes in the Persian Gulf, logistics were hampered in major palm oil producing countries in Southeast Asia, and export capacity was insufficient. The Black Sea sunflower oil supply chain remained disrupted. Global barriers to cross-border trade in vegetable oils intensified, increasing their scarcity and causing price increases far exceeding those of other grain categories, becoming the core driver of the three consecutive months of global grain price increases.

 

Meat prices remained high and volatile, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Structural shortages in livestock supply in major South American beef-producing countries like Brazil, coupled with rising feed prices significantly increasing breeding costs, and extended slaughter cycles for pigs, cattle, and sheep globally, resulted in meat supply growth consistently lagging behind consumption growth. International meat trade prices continued to rise, reaching record highs for the same period. Dairy prices fell slightly by 1.1%, a seasonal supply and demand adjustment. Increased production in European and American dairy regions during the spring and temporarily ample regional inventories provided a brief offset to overall food inflationary pressures. Sugar prices fell 4.7% month-on-month. A bumper sugarcane harvest in South America and ample global sugar supply meant that seasonal price reductions could not reverse the overall upward trend in global food prices. Despite the divergence in price movements across the five major food categories, global grain prices continued their upward trend for three consecutive months.

 

From a price cycle perspective, global grain prices rose moderately in January and February, accelerated in March due to geopolitical conflicts, and continued to climb in April, resulting in a significant cumulative increase over the three months. While the global food stock-to-consumption ratio remains within a safe range, and surplus stocks from previous bumper harvests can offset price fluctuations in the short term, pressures from all sides-production, logistics, and costs-continue to accumulate, resulting in extremely resilient food prices that are unlikely to fall rapidly in the short term. Data from the FAO shows that more than 60 countries worldwide are currently facing pressure from rapidly rising food prices, with low-income countries experiencing a significant increase in food import costs and a continued increase in the burden of daily food consumption for residents. Global food inflation is rapidly transmitting to the livelihoods of people in various countries.

Geopolitical factors, energy factors, climate factors, and agricultural input factors have collectively triggered a food price crisis.

The geopolitical turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz is the core trigger for this round of food price increases. This strait is a key passage for 20% of global crude oil, 30% of seaborne fertilizer, and a large amount of oilseed and grain trade. Escalating conflicts in the Near East have led to widespread shipping blockages in the strait, with many cargo ships stranded for safety reasons and forced to reroute routes, comprehensively hindering the cross-border transport of global energy, agricultural supplies, and food. The restricted passage in the strait has directly led to a sustained surge in international crude oil and natural gas prices. Brent crude oil has remained at a high level for an extended period, and natural gas prices have risen sharply year-on-year. Energy costs have soared across all stages of food production, agricultural machinery operations, ocean shipping, and storage and preservation, raising costs across the entire food supply chain from field to table, directly driving up the prices of various food commodities. Meanwhile, as the Persian Gulf is a core global fertilizer production area, the strait blockade has resulted in a precipitous contraction in the supply of urea, phosphate fertilizer, and potash fertilizer. Millions of tons of fertilizer cannot circulate normally globally each month, leaving major agricultural countries in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia in a predicament where they have the money but cannot buy fertilizer, directly threatening subsequent planting and the stability of annual yields.

 

The deep linkage between energy and fertilizer has created a vicious cycle of rising food prices. Modern agriculture is highly dependent on fossil fuels. 60%-80% of nitrogen fertilizer production costs come from natural gas, while oil supports the entire process of agricultural input processing, agricultural machinery operation, and long-distance grain transportation. The surge in international oil and gas prices has directly led to a significant increase in global fertilizer prices. In the first half of 2026, the average global fertilizer price was 15%-20% higher than normal levels, and urea prices reached a record high since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The surge in fertilizer prices has squeezed farmers' profits, leading them to reduce fertilizer use and shrink the planting area of ​​fertilizer-intensive grains. This has resulted in declining grain yields and a decrease in expected total output, further tightening supply and pushing up grain prices. Rising grain prices, in turn, have increased livestock feed costs, leading to a linked increase in meat, egg, and dairy prices. This cycle-energy price increases → fertilizer price surges → grain production reduction → soaring grain prices → inflation-is constantly exacerbating the pressure on the global food market.

 

Frequent extreme weather events worldwide continue to impact the production capacity of major grain-producing areas. Prolonged drought and low rainfall in North American wheat-producing regions have severely hampered winter wheat growth and grain filling due to insufficient soil moisture. Australia has experienced persistently low rainfall, leading to a downward revision of the expected bumper grain harvest for the year. The early arrival of the rainy season in Southeast Asia has disrupted rice field management, harvesting, and drying. Abnormal weather conditions during the planting season in South American corn and soybean producing regions have delayed planting progress and resulted in lower-than-expected emergence rates. With major grain-producing regions in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres experiencing successive droughts, floods, and extreme rainfall, agricultural production uncertainty has increased significantly. Market concerns are widespread that total annual grain production will fall short of expectations, prompting speculative funds to flood the grain futures market and further amplifying the rise in spot prices. Climate risks are long-term and irreversible; the normalization of extreme weather events globally continues to weaken the ability to stabilize global grain production, supporting high grain prices in the long term.

 

Increased global grain trade barriers and supply chain fragmentation have exacerbated price volatility. Some grain-exporting countries, concerned about their own food security, have tightened export quotas for grains and oilseeds, restricting cross-border grain sales; major fertilizer-producing countries have extended export bans, cutting off stable regional supply channels. The previously globalized, integrated, and efficient food trade system has been disrupted, with regional trade cycles replacing the global cycle. Long-distance ocean shipping costs have skyrocketed, and shipping times have lengthened, increasing pressure on national food self-sufficiency. Regional supply-demand imbalances have rapidly spread globally, fueling expectations of food scarcity and driving prices higher. Coupled with soaring global logistics and shipping costs and declining port turnover efficiency, the efficiency of cross-border food circulation has significantly decreased, further amplifying price volatility.

 

The disorderly expansion of biofuel policies has squeezed the supply of edible grains, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. Against the backdrop of high crude oil prices, many countries have increased the proportion of corn, soybeans, and palm oil used for biofuel conversion. Large quantities of staple foods, feed grains, and edible oilseeds are being used to produce fuel oil, continuously reducing the supply of edible grains. The competition between food for energy and basic necessities for limited agricultural product supply has exacerbated the unmet rigid demand for food, intensifying the supply-demand imbalance and directly driving up vegetable oil and grain prices. This has become a significant structural factor that cannot be ignored in the long-term rise in grain prices.

People's livelihoods are under increasing pressure, and the food security crisis is spreading to many countries.

In terms of consumer spending, food expenditures continue to rise globally, leading to a significant increase in the cost of living. Grains are the foundation of the entire food industry chain; price increases in cereals, oils, and meat directly drive up prices across all categories, including rice, flour, cooking oil, food processing, livestock farming, and snacks, resulting in rapid food inflation in China. In developed countries in Europe and North America, the cost of daily meals has increased significantly, with restaurant and supermarket food prices rising continuously. Food expenditures are significantly crowding out disposable income, suppressing consumer spending. In low-income countries in South Asia, Africa, and Southeast Asia, where incomes are already low, the country is highly dependent on international food imports. Rising international grain prices have directly and significantly increased import costs, causing domestic rice and flour prices to soar. Many low-income families are struggling to afford basic food necessities, further complicating food security and triggering a vicious cycle of domestic inflation.

 

The number of people experiencing food insecurity continues to rise, drastically increasing humanitarian risks. The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that if the Middle East conflict continues, oil prices remain high for an extended period, and food prices continue to rise, tens of millions more people worldwide will fall into severe hunger, pushing the total number of people experiencing acute food insecurity globally to a high warning level. In the Horn of Africa, Yemen, Afghanistan, and war-torn and impoverished regions of South Asia, where food production capacity is already weak and import capacity is limited, the risk of famine is rapidly increasing due to three consecutive increases in international food prices coupled with local logistical disruptions and resource shortages. War-torn countries and landlocked, food-deficient nations lack food reserves and have no room for agricultural expansion. International food aid costs have skyrocketed, aid has become more difficult, and humanitarian relief efforts are severely hampered. Regional famine crises could erupt at any time, seriously threatening global public security and peace and stability.

 

Agricultural investment is shrinking, undermining the foundation for long-term stable global food production. High fertilizer and energy prices continue to squeeze the profits of farmers worldwide, leading to widespread losses for smallholder farmers who are unable to invest in spring planting, field management, and agricultural infrastructure. Many smallholder farmers in developing countries are abandoning food cultivation altogether. Agricultural enterprises are reducing investment in breeding research and development, irrigation, and agricultural machinery upgrades, slowing long-term growth in global agricultural productivity. While short-term grain price increases may seem beneficial to farmers, the rise in agricultural input costs far exceeds the increase in grain prices, leading to a decline in farmers' profits rather than an increase in income. This has resulted in a continued decline in farmers' enthusiasm for planting, putting pressure on both the planting area and yield of summer and autumn grains globally in 2026. The global food supply gap is expected to continue widening over the next 1-2 years, making it difficult to alleviate the long-term pressure on grain price increases.

 

The global macroeconomy and international trade continue to face pressure. Food is a core indicator of inflation; persistently high global grain prices are driving up overall CPI in various countries, forcing them to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates to control inflation, further suppressing global economic recovery. Food-importing countries are experiencing a significant widening of their trade deficits, with substantial depletion of foreign exchange reserves for grain purchases, leading to continued currency depreciation and increased external debt risks. While food-exporting countries are seeing increased short-term trade profits, declining demand from long-term trading partners and increased trade barriers are hindering the overall global agricultural trade volume and disrupting international trade cycles. Simultaneously, the linked rise in food and energy prices is causing imported inflation to sweep across countries, significantly slowing the pace of global economic recovery and triggering a concentrated outbreak of multiple risks related to debt, exchange rates, and the economy in emerging market countries.

Conclusion

Food security is a crucial cornerstone of national security and a fundamental guarantee for global peace, development, people's livelihood stability, and economic recovery. Without food stability, there is no global stability. Only when countries set aside their differences, uphold multilateral cooperation, facilitate food trade, stabilize agricultural and energy supplies, ensure food production, and assist vulnerable countries can we quickly curb the continuous rise in food prices and alleviate short-term food inflationary pressures. Only by continuously deepening global food governance reform, optimizing the food supply and demand structure, diversifying supply chain risks, and promoting green and sustainable agricultural development can we withstand various unforeseen shocks from geopolitics, climate, and energy, and build a long-term defense line for global food security. Only when all countries work together to safeguard food security and smoothly navigate this round of price fluctuations can we ensure the food security of hundreds of millions of people worldwide, promote the stable operation of the global food market, and safeguard humanity's shared food future and long-term development.

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